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On the surface, it looks pretty obvious that the government shutdown is going to end soon, perhaps as early as Tuesday or Wednesday of the coming week. If Congress passes legislation on Monday, then workers could probably be called back the next day. Some government workers, in fact, are back on the job now. All of the civilian employees of the Pentagon are working. Some or all of the employees of NIH, the National Institutes of Health, have returned. Every government department is looking carefully to see if they have funds somewhere that could be “re-purposed” to get back into action sooner.
Obama said he wouldn’t negotiate on the issue of keeping the government running, nor on the potential default on America’s existing (not new) debts. Now, he’s...what? He’s negotiating on how much he will negotiate after the shutdown end and the default threat is over. It is a fine ------------ (line) and I, for one, am not sure I can see the difference. He’s not surrendering to blackmail, but he’s saying he will surrender some ground after the blackmail ends?
The Republicans, unless you are one of their number, look like much bigger jerks. OBAMACARE MUST BE DEFUNDED! No, wait. OBAMACARE MUST BE DELAYED FOR A YEAR! Wait again. Forget about Obamacare (who cares?). “We need to address America’s pending long term national debt problem”, the crossroads of which is about 25 years away. AND, to address that debt problem, we want things we have wanted all along, including some stronger parameters on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. After having opposed all of those programs from their birth until now, with varying degrees of intensity along the way, now the Republicans have come up with a “solution” which involves doing what they wanted to do all along.
BACK TO THE QUESTION: How will it end?
Obama and the Senate Republicans appear to be approaching some kind of deal. If the deal represents half a loaf of what they say they want, and if it has some binding aspects to it that make it difficult or impossible for Obama to walk away, then the Senate will try to ram it down the throats of the Idiot Caucus in the House, the 40 or so tea party inspired new comers. Here’s the problem: this caucus will not vote for anything that looks like business as usual. However, there are plenty of moderate (meaning sane) members of the House who will. The Republicans will be using the demands of the Idiot Caucus to get the strongest deal possible, but in fact, the Idiot Caucus is not required to get things started again. Got it?
So, it looks like some deal will be struck in the next few days to have future negotiations on the Republican wish list. Pending approval of that, most likely Boehner in the House will call up a vote on raising the debt ceiling, which is likely pass. Then, the government shutdown issue can be taken up.
The Republicans have gotten themselves into a mess. If it weren’t for the debt issue, it would be good for them, and bad for the country immediately, to stew in their juices for another week or even two. That could still happen. Presumably, Obama and company have worked out very detailed plans about how to deal with the debt ceiling. (Click here to read a posting from the NY Times by a reader with some ideas on how the legal issues are not as big as feared. )
Obama needs to get the default issue out of the way. Yet, if he can’t, then having the government shutdown would likely lessen the impact of the default, because there would be less money going out with most of the government closed.
Prediction: the American government will be back at work by Friday, October 18th, the default will be avoided and, somehow, we need to find a way around this recurring, non-productive dramas. Got any ideas?
I am not entirely comfortable with this prediction, but I wrote on the NY Times online when this started that I expected it to end in 10 to 14 days. There is just too much heat for it to go longer than next week, but then, who would ever imagine that one political party would come up with the idea of default on our debts and think it is a good thing?
Doug Terry, 10.12.13 (12:40 am)
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