It is too soon to say with absolute certainty that the Malaysia Airlines flight over eastern Ukraine was shot down by a missile. Although American intelligence agencies believe it was a ground to air missile that took down the airliner, there can’t full confirmation until after an investigation.  Normally, this process can take a year or more, but determining that a missile was the probable cause should take a lot less time. In fact, we should have further indication within days. That’s because an external source, like a missile, will leave different marks on the plane than an internal source, like a bomb. A full, complete and assured investigation will take longer (months, at minimum).

Everyone involved is obviously going to run from responsibility in this case. It would not be the first time that actions taken during a war situation were misinterpreted, so don’t rush to judgment. There is no advantage in drawing conclusions that are later changed.

In the NY Times:

A regional airline official said the plane had been flying at about 33,000 feet when radar lost track of it.

33 thousand feet is well beyond the expected, normal range for a shoulder launched missile.

One point of question is why the presumed information about this event is coming out so quickly. It is certainly possible that a missile shot down the airliner, but why do we have to be told so quickly? What is being gained?

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